The First 90 Days: Why Most New CPG Products Fail at Retail (And How to Beat the Odds)
Key Takeaways:
85% of new CPG products fail to achieve sustainable retail distribution—early performance in the first 90 days is highly predictive of long-term success
Retailers evaluate products based on sales velocity (units per store per week), not total sales volume.
Products that launch with pre-built brand awareness typically achieve 2-3x higher week-one velocity than products launching without awareness.
Building meaningful brand awareness for a CPG product launch requires strategic campaigns that deliver large numbers of impressions with frequency.
Starting awareness campaigns 4-8 weeks before retail launch gives brands the best chance of achieving velocity requirements and staying on shelf.
You did it.
After months of formulation, negotiations with buyers, perfecting your packaging, and navigating the labyrinth of retail logistics, your product is finally on shelf at Target, Whole Foods, CVS, or your dream retailer.
Your team celebrates. You take photos. You post on LinkedIn. This is the moment you've been working toward.
Then week one sales come in. They're... okay. Not spectacular, but not terrible.
Week two is about the same. Maybe slightly better. Maybe slightly worse.
By week three, you start wondering if you should have negotiated different placement. Or changed the packaging. Or reconsidered the price point.
Week eight arrives, and you're panicking. Sales aren't building. And you know what's coming: the retailer's evaluation of whether your product stays on shelf or gets discontinued.
I've watched this exact scenario play out hundreds of times over 30+ years. Getting on shelf is hard. Staying on shelf is harder.
According to Nielsen research on new product success, approximately 85% of new consumer packaged goods fail to achieve sustainable distribution. Research from Harvard Business School confirms that early performance is highly predictive—products that don't gain traction quickly rarely recover.
The question isn't whether your product is good enough. The question is whether enough people know you exist to generate the sales velocity retailers demand.
What Retailers Actually Measure (And Why Most Brands Get It Wrong)
Most brands think retailers are asking: "Is this a good product?" or "Do customers like it?"
They're not.
They're asking a much more specific question: "Is this product moving fast enough to justify the shelf space it's occupying?"
Shelf space is the scarcest resource in retail. Every foot of shelf represents an opportunity cost. If your product occupies that space, a competitor's product doesn't.
This is why retailers evaluate products based on sales velocity—not total sales volume, but units sold per store per week.
A product selling 1,000 units across 1,000 stores in one week has a velocity of 1 unit per store per week. A product selling 500 units across 100 stores has a velocity of 5 units per store per week. The second product is performing better from the retailer's perspective because it's using shelf space more efficiently.
This distinction matters enormously for your retail distribution strategy. You can have decent total sales and still get discontinued if your velocity is too low. You're being measured by productivity per square foot, not total units moved.
The first 90 days serve as the initial evaluation period for most retailers. This provides enough time to complete distribution, generate sales data, support consumer discovery, and identify trends. While specific review timelines are proprietary, industry practice across major chains typically involves monthly reviews of new products in the first three months, with a more formal evaluation around the 90-day mark.
In my experience working with retail buyers across major chains, products that don't demonstrate adequate velocity within this window face distribution reduction, loss of premium placement, or discontinuation. Three months gives you a real shot at proving viability—but only if you use the time strategically.
The Real Problem: Trial Without Awareness Doesn't Work
Most retail launch failures aren't product failures. They're awareness failures.
Think about what happens when a shopper walks down an aisle in your category. They're scanning dozens of products. Most shopping trips are habitual—people buy the same brands they purchased last time. When they do consider trying something new, they default to familiar brands.
"Have I heard of this?"
If the answer is no, your product gets ignored, even if it's objectively superior, positioned at eye level, and has beautiful packaging.
As we explored in our article on why brand awareness is the foundation of every sale, awareness isn't a "nice-to-have "—it's what enables consideration in the first place. Without awareness, you're hoping for impulse purchases from curious shoppers. With awareness, you're driving intentional purchases from shoppers who already recognize your name.
You're asking shoppers to choose an unfamiliar brand over familiar competitors in a 3-7 second decision window. The math doesn't work in your favor.
Sustainable sales velocity for a new product introduction requires two things: trial purchases (new customers trying your product) and repeat purchases (customers coming back). The trial is primarily driven by brand awareness and distribution. Repeat is driven by product quality, value, and satisfaction.
But you never get to repeat if you don't first achieve trial. And trial without brand awareness is dismal.
Research from IRI analyzing consumer packaged goods performance found that brand awareness is one of the strongest predictors of trial purchase rates. In our experience launching hundreds of CPG brands, products that enter retail with established brand awareness—even modest awareness in their target market—typically see 2-3x higher week-one velocity than products launching cold.
This is why the "build it, and they will come" approach fails. You built it. You got it on shelf. But they won't come unless they know you exist.
The Mistake Everyone Makes: Waiting Until They're On Shelf to Start Marketing
The biggest mistake brands make is treating retail placement as the starting line for marketing.
It's not. It's the finish line for pre-launch preparation.
If you wait until your product is on shelf to start building awareness, you've already lost critical weeks. By the time your awareness campaign gains traction, you're halfway through your evaluation window with mediocre velocity to show for it.
The brands that succeed in their CPG launch strategy start building awareness 4-8 weeks before they hit shelf. When their product launches, shoppers already recognize the name. Week one velocity is substantial because trial happens immediately, not eventually.
I've seen this pattern repeat consistently: brands that invest in pre-launch awareness achieve dramatically better retail sales performance than brands that wait.
The challenge, of course, is the budget. Building meaningful brand awareness isn't cheap, and most emerging brands are already stretched thin getting on shelf in the first place.
Based on our experience managing audio campaigns for emerging CPG brands, building meaningful awareness in targeted markets typically requires a minimum investment of $10,000 per week in audio advertising.
This represents a significant investment. But consider the alternative: launching without awareness, failing to achieve velocity, losing distribution, and having to start over—or worse, not getting another chance with that retailer.
The cost of failure is far higher than the cost of awareness.
Why Audio Advertising Works for Retail Launches
As we discussed in our analysis of why audio advertising works when digital doesn't, audio builds brand recall more effectively than visual channels do because the brain processes auditory information differently.
When shoppers hear your brand name repeatedly before they see it on shelf, recognition triggers instantly. The "I've heard of that" response happens in milliseconds, entirely subconsciously, and it changes purchase behavior.
Audio reaches consumers during their daily routines—commuting, exercising, working—building familiarity before they ever walk into a store. According to Nielsen data on audio advertising effectiveness, audio campaigns need approximately 3+ exposures per person per week over 8-12 weeks to build meaningful brand recall.
This is why starting 4-8 weeks before launch creates such an advantage in your retail product launch timeline. You're building that exposure frequency before you need it to convert to purchases.
There are three strategic approaches we've seen work for CPG product launches:
Drive to Amazon first: Launch your audio campaign, directing consumers to Amazon, 4-6 weeks before retail. This builds brand awareness while generating early sales and reviews. You enter retail with awareness already established and social proof on Amazon.
Build pre-launch awareness: Run audio advertising in markets where you'll have retail distribution, focusing on brand name repetition and category association. The goal isn't sales yet—it's familiarity. When shoppers see your product on shelf for the first time, they think "I've heard of that."
Simultaneous launch: Launch your audio campaign the same week your product hits retail. This is the minimum viable approach—you're building awareness while product is available. It's not ideal, but it's dramatically better than launching with no awareness efforts at all.
The critical success factors remain consistent: frequency matters more than reach, geographic targeting should match distribution, category association must be clear, and messaging needs to be consistent.
What Actually Happens in the First 90 Days
Let me walk you through what a successful launch looks like versus a struggling one.
Successful launch scenario:
The brand started its audio campaign six weeks before shelf date, investing $10,000 per week in its retail launch markets. By the time the product hit stores, they had 8-10 exposures per person in their target demographic.
Week one velocity was strong—not spectacular, but solidly above category benchmarks. Shoppers recognized the brand name from their commutes and podcast listening. Trial happened immediately.
By week four, velocity had climbed as word of mouth spread and repeat purchases began. Week eight showed stable velocity with evidence of growing household penetration. At the 90-day review, the buyer discussed expanding into additional regions.
Struggling launch scenario:
The brand waited until they were on shelf to start marketing. They launched a digital campaign in week two focused on performance marketing and conversion.
Week one velocity was disappointing—mostly impulse purchases from curious shoppers. Week four wasn't much better. By week eight, they were scrambling to add budget and try different tactics, but the damage was done. At 90 days, velocity was below category minimums, and the buyer was discussing reducing distribution.
The difference wasn't product quality. Both products were excellent. The difference was that one brand understood they needed awareness before launch, and the other learned that lesson too late.
The Awareness Investment Nobody Wants to Make (Until It's Too Late)
I get the hesitation. You've already spent significant money getting on shelf. Slotting fees, packaging, logistics, inventory—it adds up fast. The last thing you want to hear is that you need another $40,000-$50,000 for awareness before you've made a single sale.
But that investment is what separates the 15% of products that succeed from the 85% that fail.
Think of it this way: you're not spending money on awareness, you're getting on shelf. You're spending money on awareness because you're getting on shelf. Distribution without awareness is like opening a store without a sign. You built it, but nobody knows it exists.
The brands we work with that beat the odds understand this. They budget for awareness as part of their retail launch plan, not as an afterthought when velocity disappoints.
They start 4-8 weeks before launch. They invest in frequency, not just impressions. They target geographically to match distribution. And they sustain their campaigns through the critical first 90 days.
When they hit their 90-day review, they're not hoping to maintain distribution. They're discussing expansion.
What to Do If You're Already on Shelf and Struggling
If you're reading this and thinking "I'm already on shelf and velocity is below where it needs to be," don't panic—but don't wait either.
The first question: where are you in the 90-day window? If you're in weeks 1-4, you still have time to course-correct. Immediately increase awareness frequency. If the budget is tight, focus on your best-performing markets and defend those first.
If you're in weeks 5-8, you're in the critical window where action matters most. Increase awareness, investigate any distribution issues (are you actually on shelf everywhere you should be?), and communicate proactively with your buyer. Show them you understand the problem and have a plan.
If you're approaching weeks 9-12, be honest about where you stand. If the velocity is borderline, prepare your case. Show continued marketing investment, provide evidence of growing consumer interest, and request specific feedback. The retailer relationship isn't just about data—it's about demonstrating you're a committed partner with a realistic plan to improve.
As we explored in our discussion of why you can't measure what matters most in brand awareness, the impact of awareness campaigns isn't always immediately visible in attribution reports. But velocity trends tell the story. If awareness is building, trial purchases follow, and velocity improves.
The mistake is waiting until week 10 or 12 to react. By then, you've used most of your window.
Common Questions About Launching CPG Products Into Retail
How long does it take to build brand awareness before a retail launch?
Building meaningful brand awareness for a CPG product launch typically requires 8-12 weeks with consistent messaging and 3+ exposures per person per week. Starting your audio advertising campaign 4-8 weeks before your shelf date gives you enough time to create familiarity that drives day-one trial purchases. Products that launch with pre-built awareness typically achieve 2-3x higher week-one velocity than products launching without awareness efforts.
What is the minimum budget needed to build brand awareness for a retail launch?
Based on our 30+ years of helping launch CPG brands, building meaningful brand awareness in targeted markets requires a minimum investment of $10,000 per week in audio advertising. For an 8-10-week pre-launch campaign in regional markets (3-5 markets), expect a total investment of $80,000-$100,000. This budget level allows you to achieve the frequency (3+ exposures per week) needed to build brand recall in markets with retail distribution. That said, all of our campaign strategies are bespoke and reflect the specific needs ot the brand and its products.
What is sales velocity, and why do retailers measure it?
Sales velocity is units sold per store per week, calculated as: total units sold ÷ number of stores ÷ number of weeks. Retailers measure velocity because it shows how efficiently you're using shelf space. A product selling 1,000 units across 1,000 stores has a lower velocity (1 unit/store/week) than a product selling 500 units across 100 stores (5 units/store/week). The second product is more valuable because it generates more sales per square foot of shelf space—the fundamental metric of retail profitability.
When do retailers evaluate new products for discontinuation?
While specific review timelines are proprietary to each retailer, industry practice across major chains typically involves monthly reviews of new products in the first 90 days, with a more formal evaluation around the 90-day mark. This initial evaluation period determines whether you maintain current distribution, expand to additional stores or regions, or face reduced or discontinued distribution. Early performance in the first 90 days is highly predictive of long-term success.
Can I recover if my product has low velocity in the first 30 days?
Yes, but you need to act quickly. If you're in weeks 1-4 and velocity is below expectations, immediately increase brand awareness frequency through audio advertising, investigate distribution issues (verify you're actually on shelf where expected), and communicate proactively with your retail buyer. The mistake is waiting until week 10-12 to react—by then you've used most of your 90-day evaluation window. Course corrections work best in weeks 3-5 when you still have time to impact the outcome.
Should I launch on Amazon before going into retail stores?
Launching on Amazon 4-6 weeks before retail launch can be an effective strategy, especially for brands with limited budgets. This approach allows you to build brand awareness through audio advertising while directing consumers to Amazon, generating early sales, reviews, and social proof. You enter retail with awareness already established and evidence of consumer interest. However, ensure your audio campaigns are geographically targeted to markets where you'll have retail distribution.
What's the difference between total sales volume and sales velocity?
Sales volume is the total number of units sold across all stores. Sales velocity is the number of units sold per store per week. Volume tells you how much you're selling in total. Velocity tells you how efficiently you're using shelf space. Retailers care much more about velocity because it measures productivity per square foot. You can have decent total sales volume and still get discontinued if your velocity is too low relative to category benchmarks.
How much brand awareness do I need before launching into retail?
You don't need to be a household name, but you need enough awareness in your target market that when shoppers see your product on shelf, they think "I've heard of that" rather than "What's this?" In our experience, brands that achieve even modest aided awareness (30-40% of the target audience recognizes the brand when they see it) in their launch markets see dramatically better trial rates and first-week velocity than completely unknown brands. This level of awareness typically requires 8-10 weeks of consistent audio advertising with 3+ exposures per week.
The Bottom Line on CPG Retail Launch Success
Getting on shelf is an achievement. But it's not the finish line—it's the starting line.
The first 90 days determine whether your retail launch succeeds or joins the 85% of new CPG products that fail to achieve sustainable distribution.
The brands that beat these odds understand that retail success requires velocity, velocity requires trial, and trial requires brand awareness.
They start building awareness 4-8 weeks before launch, investing a minimum of $10,000 per week to create the familiarity that drives day-one purchases.
They use audio advertising to build brand recall cost-efficiently, reaching shoppers during their daily routines before they ever walk into a store.
They track velocity weekly, course-correct quickly when performance lags, and communicate proactively with retail buyers.
They treat retail launch as a 90-day campaign, not a one-day event.
If you're planning a retail launch in the next 3-6 months, the time to start building awareness is now—not the week you hit shelf. The difference between success and failure isn't usually product quality. It's whether shoppers know you exist when they're standing in front of your product, making a purchase decision in 3-7 seconds.
That's what brand awareness does. That's why it matters. And that's why the investment is worth making.
Planning a CPG retail launch and want to beat the 85% failure rate? Let's talk about how audio advertising can build the brand awareness your product needs to achieve the velocity retailers demand in the critical first 90 days. Contact Retail + Response